Politics is Perception

The political games the Republicans are playing leave the Democrats with no strategy moving forward

The Out-Party Game

Recently President Barack Obama pointed out that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the GOP figured out something very important during the Obama presidency: most Americas either don’t know or don’t care about the nuance of how government works:

And the problem is, is that the general public is not following the intricacies of the legislature and they’re not interested in who’s to blame, they just want to see stuff done. And the one guy they know is the President of the United States, so if things don’t get done, that can advantage the politics of the other party.

Americans know that the president is in charge of the government, and so if they are told that the government is not working, and they don’t see it working, it must be the president’s fault.

This is how the Republican Party survived — and actually thrived through — eight years of obstructionism in Congress. By blocking nominations, budgets, and legislation — much of which that would have actually helped their own constituents, and some of which Trump has championed as his own — the GOP was able to convince enough Americans that the resulting ineffective governance was Obama’s fault all along. He is the president, after all, and he is responsible for getting things done. Republicans were able to ignore a Supreme Court nominee for eight months, along with 90 other judicial nominations, without any electoral punishment — and they knew they could do it, because not enough Americans concern themselves with esoteric notions like structural democracy.

The In-Party Game

Now Trump is showing the next phase of this strategy: pure theatre. First, Trump claimed credit for keeping a Ford plant in the US that wasn’t actually slated for closure or relocation. Now, he claims to be saving jobs at a Carrier plant which actually amounts to a state tax break deal from the governor of Indiana — soon to be Vice President Mike Pence — and still allows for jobs to be shipped to Mexico.

But most Americans don’t read beyond these headlines. They don’t understand or care about the details, such as an incoming president’s legal inability to unilaterally provide incentives for an individual firm to change their financial decisionmaking. And Trump knows this. He knows that his Tweets and his statements will create headlines that will get tens of millions of views, whereas the resulting fact-checking and counter-arguments will merely get thousands of views among his supporters. Further, he and the GOP have already convinced 86% of Republicans that the ‘mainstream media’, the ones best positioned to uncover the facts behind his claims, are untrustworthy.

Like a lucky hat during a baseball game, Trump supporters will cling to these superficial displays as the cause of all that is good while overlooking the bad — or likely blame it on Obama. No rigorous investigation of cause-and-effect will take place. And without hold of either the House or the Senate, the Democrats have little ability to even use the Repbulican’s obstructionist playbook. They have little ability to undermine the empty theatrics of the Trump Administration that will echo among his supporters.

The Democrats cannot count on Trump’s scandals or failures to shake his support come 2020. If Trump keeps up his smoke and mirrors theatre and Americans take them at face value, the next election may actually be more ‘post truth’ than 2016.

Five MENA policy challenges that go beyond ISIS

The current US presidential campaign debate on Middle East policy has focused disproportionately on the US response to the Islamic State (ISIS or IS). This series will focus instead on five alternative Middle East policy challenges facing the next president. Each post below has been originally published at LobeLog.

1. Promised Democracy: The Future of Iraq

2. Tunisia: New Leaders, Old Challenges

3. Bilateral Complicity: The Next US President and Egypt

4. America’s Outdated Special Relationship with Saudi Arabia

5. Public Health as Foreign Policy: Trauma in the Arab World

Five issues ignored during the 2016 presidential election

Amid an election full of outlandish statements, Twitter spats and ad hominem accusations, many important problems facing America have failed to grace headlines. I address five of them in a series on Fair Observer:

1. The Harm of Judicial Elections in America

2. Suspicion in America: Creating a Problem for a Solution

3. Landscape of Inequality: How America Funds Public Schools

4. Continuing Opacity: Surveillance Under the Next Administration

5. The Fairytale of America and its Lost Civic Ideals

Kaepernick and American-ness

There are two major issues underlying the dialogue surrounding Colin Kaepernick’s decision to remain seated during the national anthem: 1. Race and 2. Symbolism.

1. Our society questions the American-ness of People of Color more readily than the American-ness of white people.

I can't count how many times I've heard Asian Americans asked, ‘OK, but where are you REALLY from?”, when their family has lived in the US longer than mine has. Or heard fans of Mexican soccer criticized for a lack of patriotism in a venomous way that fans of European soccer are not. Remember when even elected officials questioned the American-ness of a US-born black presidential candidate, but uttered nothing about his white opponent who was actually born abroad? Or perhaps when a former president suggested administering loyalty tests to Muslim Americans.

In our society, if you aren't an English-speaking white Christian, you have the burden of proof to show your American-ness.

2. Americans are fiercely protective over our symbols: the flag, the Constitution, the pledge of allegiance, the national anthem. Our Founders are held as not wealthy aristocrats who bright and ambitious, but prophets, bestowing upon us words and ideals beyond the tampering of mere mortals. We have been uniquely hesitant to modify our Highest Law, having only done so on 18 occasions since 1787. While others insult America and its military, like Donald Trump, they are careful to not deviate from reverence of national symbolism. When any public figure denies the sanctity of these symbols, they face quick reproach from many corners. 

Both of these issues are symptoms of the same sickness: insecurity. Americans are insecure about what it means to be American. Like a paranoid lover, we desire uncritical loyalty. Like a worried child we clench tight the words of our Founders as though they are the strands of our safety blanket.

This insecurity is at least partly caused by the many Americans who provide demographics as the identity of American-ness: Anglophone, white, Christian. And as those demographics dwindle, anxiety rises. Unfortunately for them, demographics are transient; human migration is the most stable truth of our short history.

As Americans continue to react to the contemporary model of globalization—which has temporally trailed reactions in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe—our collective identity must be more resilient than demographics and more flexible than worship of parchment from a horse and buggy generation. 

The man who talks most about winning is an expert in losing

Don’t be surprised that Trump has been peddling reasons for his eventual loss, stating that the election will be rigged against him. Don’t be surprised when he focuses more on maintaining an intense following rather than softening his message, only feigning attempts to gain wider appeal. And don’t be surprised that he’s cozy with ultra-right, and largely successful, media figures like Steve Bannon.

The man who has remained in the public eye through four bankruptcies knows how to lose. He’s not preparing his first 100 days as president, he’s preparing his next business, to be deployed on Wednesday, November 8^th. Will he start a media outlet? A new TV show? Or a consulting firm? Only time will tell, but this much is true: Trump is prepared to lose the election, and profit from it as much as possible.

This attitude is indicative of corporate America: blow smoke to inflate worth or value as much as possible and use leverage to negotiate/set-up a golden parachute, so that when you get exposed you land with more than you had originally. It’s bark with no bite, it’s style without substance, but in business and in politics, it seems to work far longer than it should.